The study and its predictions were harshly criticized at the time, but new research shows they have so far been strangely precise. In 1972, a team of scientists from MIT published the article entitled âThe Limits to Growth; a report for the Club of Rome project on the situation of humanity â.
Based on a systems dynamics model, the study identified impending ‘limits to growth’ (LtG), meaning that industrial civilization was on the verge of collapse. Collapse during the 21st century, due to the overexploitation planetary resources to support our existence.
MIT’s controversial analysis sparked intense and violent debate and was widely ridiculed at the time by experts who distorted his conclusions and questioned his methods. But time has proved them right, as the analysis has recently received impressive confirmation.
A new investigation published in the academic journal Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology suggests that the previous study was Totally correct. If so, it would mean that we could see the end of our industrial civilization by 2040 with a violent impact on the way we live.
However, researchers believe that our slope can be stopped if we stop exploding in excess our resources and change course.
The author of the study, Gaya Herringtonexplained, âAfter all, the book that introduced this global model was a sales success in the 70s and I thought that now we would have several decades of empirical data that would make a meaningful comparison. But to my surprise, I haven’t found any recent attempts at this. So I decided to do it myself. “
The researcher works as the head of dynamic systems analysis and sustainability at the accounting firm KPMG, one of the accounting firms of the ‘The big four‘according to the global income comparison and concluded that there would be “a sharp decline that will occur around 2040â.
In the Global Technology (CT) scenario, economic decline always occurs around this date with a number of possible negative consequences, but it does not lead to social collapse. (Photo: Herrington, 2021).
His study of the “end of civilization” was conducted as part of his master’s thesis at Harvard. However, it is not necessary to enter panic Again. Herrington pointed out that his study does not attempt to say that humanity will cease to exist in 2040; however, our way of life could change drastically and forever.
The scientist detailed Vice: âEconomic and industrial growth is will stop after that will decrease, which will harm the production of food and the standard of living [â¦] In terms of time, the BAU2 scenario shows a strong fall around 2040 â.
BAU2 (Business As Usual) is a scenario that refers to âbusiness as usual,â something Herrington discourages.
BAU2 (Business As Usual) graph which calculates the different variables: resources, population, pollution, food and exit from the industrial model, if we continue to do âbusiness as usualâ. (Photo: Herrington, 2021).
Herrington’s new analysis examines data on 10 key variables: population, fertility rate, death rate, industrial production, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human well-being, and ecological footprint.
Everything indicates what to focus on in pursuit of continued economic growth it will be useless.
The study finds that the progress technological and the to augment of investments to public services not only could to avoid the risk of collapse. They could also lead to a new civilization stable and prosperous that works with security within planetary boundaries.
The bad news is that we only have the next decade to change course.